No housing bubble, but...
As I read the recent piece by "Fleck" on Greenspan, I happened across an article of his from a few weeks ago, re: the real estate "bubble". I was glad to see him latch onto something I've been saying for a while now: there is not a real estate "bubble", but a credit "bubble".
Get ready for a credit crunch, meaning, higher qualifying standards, fewer products available, layoffs in the lending industries, and other ill effects of the hangover following the euphoria. The reason real estate prices may well decline in general is the same reason that auto prices may decline: less people will be able to qualify for the terms of loans linked to those products and thus, there will be an initial glut of such products. Prices will (must) fall to levels where consumers can again qualify for loans. This applies to any largely-financed "big ticket" items, such as the aforementioned homes and cars. Oddly, logic breaks down when financing large items such as aircraft carriers, bridges to nowhere, and "ending poverty" are considered. Oh, but that's your federal government working for you. Fiscal logic need not apply there; it must be that "New Economy" I was hearing about back in the late 90s.
Get ready for a credit crunch, meaning, higher qualifying standards, fewer products available, layoffs in the lending industries, and other ill effects of the hangover following the euphoria. The reason real estate prices may well decline in general is the same reason that auto prices may decline: less people will be able to qualify for the terms of loans linked to those products and thus, there will be an initial glut of such products. Prices will (must) fall to levels where consumers can again qualify for loans. This applies to any largely-financed "big ticket" items, such as the aforementioned homes and cars. Oddly, logic breaks down when financing large items such as aircraft carriers, bridges to nowhere, and "ending poverty" are considered. Oh, but that's your federal government working for you. Fiscal logic need not apply there; it must be that "New Economy" I was hearing about back in the late 90s.








0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home