A tinderbox in the ocean

As so much attention is effected on the parts of the world with which we are all too familiar - the middle east, e.g. - the contrarian in me is left looking for regions and issues of future concern. Here's one.

If oil prices remain relatively high and it is indeed determined (or widely advertised at least) that subterranean oil supplies are dwindling rapidly, conflict over this resource will drive nations against one another in ways previously unimagined.

What of alternative energy sources? They're not ready for prime time and, where they are, simply nothing packs the punch (dollar per unit of energy) as does petroleum. I am open to refutation - prove me wrong - please!

So where will we see conflict if this plays out? The South China Sea looks to be the hottest of hot spots. It is under-developed and is surrounded by many rapidly industrializing nations with two (or at best three) bit dictators at their helms. Add the North Korean nuclear fire to the mix. And to that, the ongoing hostilities between China and Taiwan. God forbid if Japan decides to publicly announce it has nuclear weapons.

Check out this dossier on the Spratly Islands - in the mix of it all - courtesy of our friends at Global Security. "Islands" is something of a misnomer. They are merely coral growths, no more than a few meters above sea level. But they sit right in the middle of the South China Sea - and China has even been building on them. This bit from the abovementioned dossier is priceless:

In January 2000 photographs of Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands were shown to the foreign ministers of the other eight ASEAN countries by Philippine foreign minister, Domingo Siazon. The photographic evidence showed that China had expanded installations on the reef since 1995, when it first started building what it said were shelters for fishermen. There are now four sites on the reef with installations that could be connected to form a fortress, like Gibraltar, or a five-star hotel for fishermen.